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>
> SECULAR NATIONALISM WINS IN INDONESIA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
>
> HONOLULU (July 9) -- The most striking aspect of the first round of
> balloting in Indonesia's presidential election is the fact that the top
> three slates, which account for more than 80 percent of the votes, are
> headed by secular nationalist figures rather than Islamic leaders, an
> East-West Center specialist said.
>
> Despite the focus of foreign media and governments on Islamic radicalism
> and the dramatic incidents perpetrated by Islamic terrorists, "this result
> confirms the continuing moderation of Indonesia's overwhelmingly Islamic
> population and the relative weakness of political Islam in the country,"
> said Richard Baker, an Indonesia specialist.
>
> "Secular nationalism triumphed over Islamic politics," Baker said. "The
> Islamic political vote was widely split and more radical Islamic forces
> were essentially invisible in terms of electoral impact."
>
> Based on 85 million ballots tabulated so far (about 2/3 of the likely
> total), the top vote-getter with nearly 34 percent is Soesilo Bambang
> Yudhoyono, a retired general and former cabinet member but a new face in
> electoral politics. Running second with just over 26 percent of the vote,
> therefore almost certain to qualify for a runoff on Sept. 20, is incumbent
> President Megawati Sukarnoputri. In third place with 22-23 percent is
> another retired general and former minister under longtime strongman
> President Suharto as well as two subsequent governments, Wiranto.
>
> All three of the top finishers chose figures with strong Islamic
> credentials as their running mates in a clear effort to both reassure and
> attract support from Muslim voters. But the other two competing slates,
> led by explicitly Islamic presidential candidates -- former Islamic social
> organization leader Amien Rais, and Megawati's vice president and longtime
> Islamic party leader Hamzah Haz -- finished well behind the first three,
> with 14 plus percent and just over 3 percent respectively. Of these two,
> only Hamzah Haz has supported the establishment of an Islamic state in
> Indonesia.
>
> Finally, the newer (though not considered extremist) fundamentalist
> Islamic PKS party, which dramatically increased its vote in the April
> parliamentary elections compared to the previous 1999 election and will
> have the largest representation in the new Jakarta regional parliament,
> was clearly ambivalent about the presidential candidates and only endorsed
> Amien Rais, its most natural ally, days before the election.
>
> Baker noted that the election was also a vote for change. "Of all the
> candidates, only Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono is a truly new face in
> electoral politics. His first-place finish suggests many Indonesians are
> tired of the existing, bickering and lackluster leaders and want someone
> who will bring a fresh approach to government." However, Soesilo's
> greatest liability "is simply his newness on the public stage. If the
> initial burst of enthusiasm following his break with Megawati and entry
> into the presidential race in March continues to lose steam, the runoff
> may end up being closer and more chaotic than had been generally
> anticipated before the first round of balloting."
>
> Regardless, the July 5 election was "a good day for democracy. The
> peaceful election process and orderly balloting by some 120 million voters
> in a first-time direct presidential election is an impressive outcome for
> a country still emerging from a long period of authoritarian government."
>
> Richard Baker can be reached at (808) 944-7371 or
> bakerr@eastwestcenter.org
