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> INDONESIA'S NEWEST PRESIDENT ARRIVES WITH HIGH EXPECTATIONS
> Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono To Take Office Next Week
>
> By Richard W. Baker
> East-West Center
>
> HONOLULU (Oct. 15) -- On Oct. 20 Indonesia will inaugurate a new
> president, retired general and former security minister Susilo Bambang
> Yudhoyono. The inauguration of Indonesia's sixth president, the fourth in
> the last 6 1/2 years, caps a remarkable process that involved three
> nationwide elections over the past six months -- including Indonesia's
> first and the world's largest direct presidential election. This process
> has given the country new national, provincial and local legislatures in
> addition to a new national leader. Although it is too soon to say that the
> Susilo government will be able to surmount the many challenges facing the
> country, the election process itself constituted a significant step in
> consolidating the democratic transition in the world's fourth most
> populous nation, which also has the largest Muslim population of any
> country.
>
> "SBY" soundly defeated incumbent president Megawati Sukarnoputri in a
> runoff election on Sept. 20, ratified by the constitutional court on Oct.
> 7. Susilo and his running mate Jusuf Kalla (also a former minister) won
> 69.2 million or 61 percent out of a total of 114 million valid votes,
> compared to Megawati and partner Hasyim Muzadi's 44.9 million or 39
> percent. This is an overwhelming margin of victory, which provides Susilo
> with a clear mandate for his program of responsible change.
>
> Other aspects of the 2004 elections were also promising. The process
> itself was remarkably orderly and smooth, despite some technical glitches
> particularly in the first round of presidential voting on July 5. There is
> widespread satisfaction and pride in Indonesia over the success of the
> elections, a healthy morale boost for a nation that has faced many traumas
> over the six years since the downfall of longtime strongman Suharto in May
> 1998.
>
> Further, the voters' choice of leaders trumped the power of political
> organization (the two parties with the most extensive national networks
> both supported Megawati), money and incumbency -- the combination of which
> also worked in Megawati's favor. Thus there is no doubt that the election
> outcome accurately reflected the popular will.
>
> Also noteworthy, at a time of concern over Islamist extremism and
> terrorism (underlined by the Sept. 9 bombing at the Australian Embassy in
> Jakarta), was the nearly total domination of the vote by secular
> nationalist and moderate Muslim parties and leaders. Eighty-five percent
> of Indonesia's population is Muslim, but in the first presidential vote,
> among five competing slates, 80 percent of the electorate voted for
> secular nationalist figures teamed with moderate Islamic running mates.
> The Muslim candidate who had openly courted radicals, sitting Vice
> President Hamzah Haz, gained a miniscule 3 percent of the vote. These
> numbers provide convincing -- and reassuring -- evidence that extremism
> and terrorism do not have serious political traction in Indonesia.
>
> Finally, the election result may lead to improvements in Indonesia's
> legislative process. Although the parliament (DPR) still features multiple
> parties (16 are represented, of which seven hold at least 8 percent of the
> seats), Susilo has moved quickly to put together a majority coalition and,
> for the first time, it appears that there will also be an organized
> opposition coalition. Further, a large number of DPR members are new -- up
> to 70 percent according to some reports -- bringing promise of greater
> energy and seriousness. Finally, a directly elected upper house has
> replaced the former polyglot arrangement involving regional delegates and
> appointed members from the military and other societal groups.
>
> Of course, the devil is always in the details, and the fulfillment of the
> potential for progress under the new leadership and legislature is far
> from assured. Vested interests are still heavily embedded in the system,
> and as throughout the post-Suharto period, once the public spotlight is
> off, these forces will work stealthily to influence the legislative and
> government processes in ways that favor them. The cohesiveness of SBY's
> nascent parliamentary coalition is uncertain, and the selection of his
> cabinet (already delayed from the original Oct. 5 target) may be affected
> by the need to allocate seats to representatives of coalition parties.
>
> But the most immediate challenges facing Susilo and his team are
> expectations and priorities. Expectations are probably unrealistically
> high -- for example there has been much talk in the Indonesian media of a
> dramatic "first 100 days" reminiscent of FDR or JFK in the United States.
> There has also been some questioning of Susilo's decisiveness as a leader.
> The critical point will be for SBY to set out clear priority areas and
> timelines for addressing problems in government performance and economic
> policy. Key issues include curbing corruption, stimulating the economy and
> dealing with unaffordable but politically loaded subsidies. If Susilo can
> take early effective actions, this would both cement his popular support
> and boost his political clout in the DPR, making the next steps easier to
> accomplish.
>
> Regardless of the hurdles still ahead, with the 2004 elections the
> Indonesian system has taken another significant incremental step forward.
> And, as has been the case at other key moments in the post-Suharto era,
> this latest movement toward reform and democratization was the result of
> direct involvement of the Indonesian public in the political process.
>
> Richard E. Baker can be reached at (808) 944-7371 or
> bakerr@eastwestcenter.org.
>
>
